Grepping for "Done!" lines, I found a gap:

Aug 4 05:15:18 payments1004 orphans: globalcollect_gateway_tr 27169494:398502881 Done! Final results: 0 destroyed via antimessage (called 1 times) 6 rectified orphans 0 errored out 0 false orphans caught Status 25 = 4 Status 20 = 2 Approximately 17 seconds to execute.
Aug 4 05:25:12 payments1004 orphans: globalcollect_gateway_tr 27169543:8017581992 Done! Final results: 0 destroyed via antimessage (called 1 times) 1 rectified orphans 0 errored out 0 false orphans caught Status 25 = 1 Approximately 11 seconds to execute.

This process happens every 5 minutes, so where is 05:20?

My guess is a fatal error, but I don't see any exceptions in /var/log/mw/debug since the DonationQueue anti-renormalization patch went out. Although that logfile doesn't have any timestamps, so who knows what's in there...

In payments.error,

Aug 4 05:20:34 payments1004 orphans: globalcollect_gateway_tr 27169500:5339245354 processResponse Error 21000050 : Blocking validation problems with this payment. Investigation required! {"ffname":null,"country":"JP","currency_code":"JPY","payment_method":"cc","payment_submethod":"jcb","recurring":"","gateway":"globalcollect","utm_source":"B1516_0727_jaJP_dsk_p1_lg_txt_cnt.no-LP.cc","referrer":"https:\/\/ja.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Facebook"}

The last words in payments-orphan were,

Aug 4 05:20:35 payments1004 orphans: globalcollect_gateway_tr 27169526:6058477389 contribution_id:27169526 - duration:0.5973 - gateway:Global Collect - function:Confirm_CreditCard - vars: - additional:Confirm_CreditCard -