Paypal double checked this information and they show that all payments, specifically for the time period of February 2013 to current, have all completed successfully to Wikimedia. I have attached a log of payments made that includes dates, times and amounts provided by Paypal here.

smb://filesrv1/Fundraising/Tech/Paypal/T120692 Wikimedia Subscription Payments

These were all made (February 2013 to current) to the email address of tle@wikimedia.org.

I've confirmed that payments from this subscription are handled correctly by PayPal. They are picked up by our nightly audit process, and sent to the recurring queue. However, this is falling into our legacy subscription hole--we don't have a record of the original subscription, so we delay putting it into the database for a few hours, waiting for the subscription message to arrive, and when it doesn't, we reject the message and put it onto the recurring-damaged queue.

This is actually a surprise to me, I thought we were sending failmails for all missing subscriptions. Happily, we still have a record of these, in archived -damaged queue dumps.

Have been backfilling these as they come in, synthesizing subscr_start messages from failed subscr_payment messages. I think they're all set now!