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New editor potential predictor
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Description

Build a model that, when given a user_id, examines that user's first edit session and predicts how much they'll contribute if they don't get strong, negative feedback right away.

Wiki thing this helps with:

  • Directing the attention of newcomer supporting Wikipedians
  • Helping counter-vandals know when it's worthwhile to write a personal message

Things that will help get this AI built:

  • Some modeling work is here: Halfaker, A., Geiger, R. S., Morgan, J. T., & Riedl, J. (2013). The rise and decline of an open collaboration system: How Wikipedia’s reaction to popularity is causing its decline. American Behavioral Scientist, 57(5), 664-688.
  • We could train a model that predicts the future productivity of editors who (somehow) do not receive a negative reaction.