First noticed on this patch on March 11:
https://gerrit.wikimedia.org/r/c/wikimedia/fundraising/tools/+/919256/3
It was the second in a chain where the first was passing tests and it directly followed the first in my git history. No more rebasing on top of the first was possible in the gerrit UI as 'this change is already up to date with its parent', yet it got the V-1 Merge Failed "This change or one of its cross-repo dependencies was unable to be automatically merged with the current state of its repository. Please rebase the change and upload a new patchset."
After the parent patch was merged I was able to get V+2 on 919256 with 'recheck'. Gerrit is now giving a spurious V-1 to the following patch in that chain: https://gerrit.wikimedia.org/r/c/wikimedia/fundraising/tools/+/920360/2 (also up to date with its parent).
Currently also happening to https://gerrit.wikimedia.org/r/c/wikimedia/fundraising/tools/+/919249 which I had just rebased on top of master prior to giving C+2.
Prior to May 11, we hadn't made any commits to that repo since last November, so the breakage may have happened any time since then.