As part of T41510, we added more filters to Special:EditWatchlist. If you select a combination of filters which don't match any pages on your watchlist, you will see the message You have no items on your watchlist, but this is not necessarily true.
We could change this to something like There are no pages on your watchlist in this namespace or There are no pages on your watchlist matching these filters.
Found by @Samwalton9-WMF.