OK so I think this can be done relatively easily using the productivity measurements I'm working on. We'll be able to include edits that don't really stick with the reverted edits. I think we should split edits to User by "obviously good" and "obviously bad" and spot-check the obviously good edits for accidental logged-out edits. Then we'll have a ballpark answer.

I commented at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User_talk:Funcrunch/Protect_userspace_RfC_draft#Some_feedback.

The task description stating "these edits [by IP users] are generally not productive" is unsubstantiated and assumes bad faith. :-(

@I_JethroBT, regretfully, I've found that my productivity measurements are limited to namespace zero. I think I'll be retrying this analysis -- looking at revert rates instead. I should have an update by the end of the day.

OK. new proposal re. methods. I think that we should gather a random sample of edits to NS=2 by anons. Then we should run them through the revert checked in mwreverts to see if they were reverted for reasons that are likely to be vandalism or damage. Generally, I limit the time to revert to 48 hours, exclude self-reverts, and exclude edits that are reverted back to by someone other than the original author.

Then I think we should manually review a random sample of reverted/not-reverted edits to look for evidence for or against:

1. Hypothesis 1: Most good anon user space edits are accidental logged-out edits
2. Hypothesis 2: Most anon user space edits are vandalism

Sound OK?

The age of the owner of the user page would be an interesting point to note, too.

I foresee three cases:

• Page of experienced editor. All anon edits are vandalism, there may be an occasional logged-out edit by the owner (for which getting a you-are-logged-out error wouldn't be an issue).

• Page of "newbie editor". He doesn't care too much about logging into his account. Maybe he isn't using his userpage properly, perhaps preparing an article there.

• Page of non-existant user being edited.

Also note the difference between User pages, and User subpages. There is no reason to vandalize a subpage (unless it's transcluded by the user page). But certain subpages may expect anon edits...

@Platonides, good point! I'm glad you brought up the issue of sub-pages. It looks like 1584 out of the 2921 anon, user space edits in the recentchanges table for enwiki are subpage edits. Here's a quick sample of those.

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:HuffTheWeevil/Current_airliners?diff=729758182 -- Updates table of information
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:SuperBingo/sandbox?diff=732868058 -- Removes a field from a template (looks fine)
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Culinarypath/Books/3D_Bone_Printing?diff=732340068 -- Adds a link to a user-book
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Gene_McCullough/Vasily_Konovalenko?diff=733430332 -- Improves grammar on a draft article
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:HankMoodyTZ/sandbox?diff=731378025 -- Adds reference to draft article
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:HankMoodyTZ/sandbox?diff=731375524 -- Changes reference in draft article
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:EndOfHistory05/sandbox?diff=731692647 -- Adds image to draft infobox
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:VarunFEB2003/Guestbook?diff=731777736 -- Removes stray ping
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Corey_Sim/sandbox?diff=730696670 -- Grammar/clarity edit
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Eveln/sandbox?diff=732510706 -- Removes a bit of whitespace

It seems to me that these edits are all non-vandalism and they are likely to be accidental logged out edits.

So, I think I'll be focusing on edits to non-subpages. See my work in Quarry here: https://quarry.wmflabs.org/query/11697 -- "Exploring anonymous activity in User space (enwiki)"

Thanks for all this work so far, @Halfak : )

@Platonides brings up a good point above about cases regarding subpages, and it looks like the sample supports the notion that there is not a big problem on user subpages.

I also agree with @Platonides that it's reasonable to predict that newer / older / nonexistent userpages may be different in degrees of productive and non-productive editing. @Halfak, I think the hypotheses you are looking to test make sense. If it is too difficult to gather productivity measurements, I think reverts will provide enough of an indication.

I've gathered a random sample of recent edits within the "User" namespace on English Wikipedia that were not to sub-pages and whose IP address did not associate with any logged in changes (using the checkuser system). This is a random sub-sample of the roughly 60% of anon user-space edits that didn't match a registered user. @I_JethroBT and I manually reviewed these edits and sorted them into three classes: good, good-faith (but damaging) and vandalism.

It looks like the majority of the edits were vandalism (54). There were a few good-faith mistakes (6). The remaining good edits look like they were mostly edits by a logged out user that snuck through my filters (43) and a couple that were counter-vandalism (2).

See our notes below:

Good edits (45):

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730294315 -- good: userpage edit, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732397500 -- good: userpage edit, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732848625 -- good: userpage edit, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730478066 -- good: userpage edit, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732094750 -- good: userpage edit, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731739952 -- good: userpage edit, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730418444 -- good: userpage edit, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730477872 -- good: userpage edit, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730505961 -- good: userpage edit, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732933235 -- good: userpage edit, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732104437 -- good: counter-vandalism, removing nonsense
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731078188 -- good: counter-vandalism
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732883560 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732232320 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731590190 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732414508 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730235832 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731529290 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731366035 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732757869 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731542131 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731529572 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731529636 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=729862865 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=729723089 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732759173 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731593600 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730272705 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732412293 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731912860 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730735067 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=729935192 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730291632 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730664033 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732587505 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731491435 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732572656 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730293287 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730430674 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732032696 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730213240 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731592591 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=729935307 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732756966 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=729861082 -- good: drafting, probably logged out
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730367132 -- good: drafting, probably logged out

Good faith damage (6):

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732170921 -- good faith: Misunderstanding of userspace
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731483865 -- good faith: probable logged-out edit, but writing autobiographical content
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730200385 -- good faith: adding {{blocked user}} template, but reverted, asked to let an admin make a judgment call
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732157193 -- good faith: deletes "do not delete" line on sandbox page
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730637857 -- good faith: deletes "do not delete" line on sandbox page
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730312605 -- good faith: deletes "do not delete" line on sandbox page

Vandalism (54):

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731659593 -- vandal: IP sock removes {{sock}} from own blocked userpage
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=729712494 -- vandal: IP adding editorial comments
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730648857 -- vandal: gibberish
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=729979418 -- vandal: "bad attitude"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731733023 -- vandal: page deleted as blatant misuse of Wikipedia as a webhost-- edited by several IPs (may all be same user)
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731729862 -- vandal: page deleted as blatant misuse of Wikipedia as a webhost-- edited by several IPs (may all be same user)
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730772041 -- vandal: "I am an idiot"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731919348 -- vandal: changes name to "Arabian Gulf"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=733029353 -- vandal: removing content
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730195348 -- vandal: rm sock template
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731096156 -- vandal: "lying beech"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730402470 -- vandal: "I love Taylor Swift"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730434079 -- vandal: revdeleted (Grossly insulting, degrading, or offensive material)
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731325091 -- vandal: Changed {{sock}} template to proven
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732092948 -- vandal: "I am a web freak who loves to play tricks"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730438617 -- vandal: Middle finger emoji
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731376398 -- vandal: rm {{sock}} template
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732146206 -- vandal: Looks like people chatting on userpages
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730518026 -- vandal: threats, writes out "faggot" backwards
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731908025 -- vandal: mispellings, general disruption
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730435982 -- vandal: revdeleted (Grossly insulting, degrading, or offensive material)
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730441861 -- vandal: gibberish
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730555851 -- vandal: "I peed my pants"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730609500 -- vandal: "Deez nuts"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730971080 -- vandal
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732422250 -- vandal: Adds {{sock}} template and gets reverted
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730576677 -- vandal: adds {{sock}} template and gets reverted
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730628620 -- vandal: adds link to violent video
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730472081 -- vandal: removes {{sock}} and gets reverted
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732175991 -- vandal: Deletes the "please leave this alone" comment from User:Sandbox
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731420870 -- vandal: "blah blah blah"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731509464 -- vandal
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730447039 -- vandal: "I peed my pants"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731485488 -- vandal: Changed bot status
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730627091 -- vandal: adds {{sock}} and gets reverted. Page is protected
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730213377 -- vandal: personal
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732508244 -- vandal: adds random "?"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730633358 -- vandal: page blanking
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731484972 -- vandal: marks bots as not running
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=731097188 -- vandal: "Anonymous will be here"
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730266238 -- vandal: removes {{sock}} template
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732999039 -- vandal: ???
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730503383 -- vandal: removes {{sock}} template and gets reverted
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732410871 -- vandal: disruption involving {{sock}} template on User:Jimbo Wales
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732423339 -- vandal: Adds a {{sock}} template and gets reverted
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=730471930 -- vandal: Removes {{sock}} template
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732410844 -- vandal: Adds a {{sock}} template and gets reverted
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?diff=732423438 -- vandal: Adds a {{sock}} template and gets reverted