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Analyze iOS upgrade patterns to estimate potential timeline for Apple's Relay service adoption
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Description

Expected timeline: In the past, how much time elapses between a new version of iOS being released and the majority of our iOS traffic originating from devices using that version?

  • Major update: For example when iOS 14 was released on Sept 16, 2020, how long until the unique editors on iOS (defined above) were more than 50% iOS 14? How long until 80%?
  • Point updates: We expect that any change in opt-in status would occur with a sub version update, the first of which generally occur 4-6 weeks after the initial release. For example when iOS 14.1 was released on Oct 20, 2020, how long until the unique editors on iOS (defined above) were more than 50% iOS 14.1? How long until 80%?

Preferred deadline: prior to Thursday, September 29 meeting at 11AM Pacific.
Recommended deliverable: same Google Sheet as T292103 (easy for stakeholders to filter & sort themselves)

Details

Other Assignee
nettrom_WMF

Event Timeline

mpopov triaged this task as High priority.Sep 29 2021, 6:46 PM
mpopov updated Other Assignee, added: nettrom_WMF.

Moving to doing as Shay has already started working on this

We are limited to the past 90 days for useragent data that includes iOS versions, so for this upgrade distribution I used iOS version 14.7 (Release date: 2021-07-19 and a subsequent release of 14.7.1 on 2021-07-26, these are combined in most data sources). In order to compare uptake rates I used data from druid.pageviews_hourly, for edit/editors data mediawiki_private_cu_changes and used Apple App Connect data for all users/Sessions.
@nettrom_WMF made a Superset table for the druid.pageviews_hourly, data from that query and my other sources is in a GDoc Apple Relay Timeline Data iOS Version Upgrades T292104.

Biggest takeaway reflected in all 3 data sources - the period between 21 and 28 days is where upgrade distribution jumps most noticeably - from average 35% of distribution to average 66% of distribution. My completed iOS version upgrade over time matrix is in the GDoc we are using for meeting 2021-09-31, once results are discussed I will add to this ticket.

Notes on datasets: The edits/editor dataset from mediawiki_private_cu_changes is quite small (under 1500 daily) and is limited to prior to 2021-08-31. The uptake rate in that datasets is a less smooth curve than the other 2 datasets. Also note, the data we are using from Apple is Opt-in Only data, our average Opt-in rate is ~35% of all users, we are using sessions counts so we have quite enough data.

SNowick_WMF lowered the priority of this task from High to Medium.Oct 25 2021, 4:38 PM

User OS upgrade analysis is completed, closing as resolved. Please open as new task if further analysis is needed.