Looks like we're actually OK - the vast majority of today's txns at the console are from old-api recurring.
If I add up all the donations in our database from today with trxn_id like 'ingenico%', 'recurring ingenico%', 'globalcollect%', or 'recurring globalcollect%', it's within two percent of the number of card txns exported from the console for today with status >=800.

Ah, thank you @Ejegg that makes sense - sorry for the false alarm!