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Updated ORES models can no longer satisfy configured threshold requirements
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For example, the fiwiki goodfaith model is now really bad, and no longer has available thresholds that satisfy precision >= 0.15. This has caused some filters to disappear from Recentchanges completely, and others to become useless. The only reason we noticed is that Special:ORESModels throws notices when encountering this situation (see T205228).

Based on the error log entries produced by T205228, the following models are affected at minimum:

  • fiwiki goodfaith (stats)
  • hewiki goodfaith (stats)
  • fawiki damaging (stats)
  • ruwiki goodfaith (stats)

Really we should reevaluate the thresholds of all models, we've never yet done that after the initial configuration of each model.

Event Timeline

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Adding to @Catrope, we could add a step to the Makefile after writing model stats which would look for obvious shortcomings in the models built and do some type of intervention. I'm not sure it should be a prompt however, because we run this as an ad-hoc batch process and want it to complete without blocking on any one model. For reference, I think we currently crash the entire build on errors anywhere in the make pipeline, so the bar is set pretty low.

Just taking a look at this again. I can explain where the problem may have come from with fiwiki (using flaggedrevs as observations), but the others have surprised me. It could be that by re-tuning and re-training we can get a more reasonable split. It's really in that case that I'm seeing a *serious* problem.

Generally, it seems likely that we'll continue to sometimes be able to satisfy strict statistics and struggle at other times. This is due to non-deterministic effects in model training. In reality, the model will be a bit better than the statistics suggest. Our statistics will get more and more exact as we add new observations to training and testing. This is a big reason why we want to get Jade out. It will be a huge source of data beyond the limited Wikilabels campaigns we run now.

That said, for some of these communities, we're still working with data from 2015/2016 so running a new labeling campaign to get more data wouldn't be out of the question.

Halfak triaged this task as Medium priority.Feb 5 2019, 10:28 PM
Halfak moved this task from Unsorted to Maintenance/cleanup on the Machine-Learning-Team board.